Open AWE Magazine menu
Subscribe Login

Home / Articles and Press Releases / Press Release / No Shortcuts to Calculating Temperature Rises in Climate Models

CATEGORIES

  • Latest Issue
  • Air Quality
  • Chromatography
  • Construction
  • Climate Change
  • Emissions
  • Environmental & Monitoring Technology
  • Gas Detection
  • Health and Safety Awareness
  • Humidity & Temperature
  • Laboratory Testing
  • Land Remediation
  • Marine Pollution
  • Noise Monitoring
  • Regulations & Legislations
  • Sludge and Biosolids
  • Soil Analysis
  • Spectroscopy
  • Weather Monitoring
  • Water Analysis
  • Water Monitoring

MORE

  • Press Releases
  • Events
  • Videos
  • Magazines
  • Webinar Sign Up

COMPANY

  • About
  • Advertising
  • Newsletter
  • Contact
HSI White logo
Open AWE Magazine menu
Subscribe

Home / Articles and Press Releases / Press Release / No Shortcuts to Calculating Temperature Rises in Climate Models

CATEGORIES

  • Latest Issue
  • Air Quality
  • Chromatography
  • Construction
  • Climate Change
  • Emissions
  • Environmental & Monitoring Technology
  • Gas Detection
  • Health and Safety Awareness
  • Humidity & Temperature
  • Laboratory Testing
  • Land Remediation
  • Marine Pollution
  • Noise Monitoring
  • Regulations & Legislations
  • Sludge and Biosolids
  • Soil Analysis
  • Spectroscopy
  • Weather Monitoring
  • Water Analysis
  • Water Monitoring

MORE

  • Press Releases
  • Events
  • Videos
  • Magazines
  • Webinar Sign Up

COMPANY

  • About
  • Advertising
  • Newsletter
  • Contact

CATEGORIES

  • Heat and Flame
  • Press Release|Gas Detection
  • Article
  • Press Release
  • Air Quality
  • Chromatography
  • Construction
  • Climate Change
  • Emissions
  • Environmental & Monitoring Technology
  • Gas Detection
  • Health and Safety Awareness
  • Humidity & Temperature
  • Laboratory Testing
  • Land Remediation
  • Marine Pollution
  • Noise Monitoring
  • Personal Protective Equipment
  • Regulations & Legislations
  • Sludge and Biosolids
  • Soil Analysis
  • Spectroscopy
  • Weather Monitoring
  • Water Analysis
  • Water Monitoring
  • Wellbeing at work

Press Release

No Shortcuts to Calculating Temperature Rises in Climate Models

By European Commission

| Read Bio

Published: February 15th, 2023

Share this article

Researchers reveal the limitations of current methods used to estimate the rise in mean surface temperature after CO2 doubles in the atmosphere.

No Shortcuts to Calculating Temperature Rises in Climate Models

Scientists consider equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) an essential number for comparing climate models. A measure of how much Earth’s surface will warm following a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere, ECS has for decades been predicted to range between 1.5 ℃ and 4.5 ℃. A new study carried out as part of the EU-funded TiPES project now reveals that it could still be quite difficult to accurately estimate ECS in complex climate models.

Response is not always linear

According to the study’s authors, the limited data and relatively brief simulations required to estimate ECS could be significantly underestimating long-term warming. This is because commonly used methods assume that climate response, in other words the change in the global mean surface temperature, is linear. However, in reality, response can be non-linear, sometimes becoming visible immediately after a large perturbation and at other times only becoming apparent after a long period. 

The complexity of Earth’s climate system means that it can take thousands of years to reach an equilibrium temperature. However, climate model simulations run on today’s supercomputers take a few months to yield results on 150 years of climate change. Therefore, to simulate the thousands of years of climate change in order to find a climate model’s ECS, we would have to run the model for years on end. 

Since this is not feasible, scientists have used an easier method explained in a news item posted on ‘AZoCleantech’. “Once a model has been subjected to the simulation of a couple of hundred years of climate evolution, the data is gathered and then utilized to evaluate how much the mean global temperature goes up if the model was allowed to run until the equilibrium temperature was reached.” 

However, this simplified approach – based on calculations rather than simulations – could be underestimating the rise in surface temperature. This is because calculations do not take into account how late climate tipping events, for example, a sudden desertification after thousands of years, can abruptly change mean global temperatures. 

Therefore, climate tipping makes the standard approach to comparing climate models unreliable. Since this method has the potential to fail in simple climate models, it will likely also be inadequate for more advanced models. 

“So, we show that to be sure of the long-term behavior of a modern global climate model, there are no shortcuts to doing extensive simulations,” remark study authors Drs Robbin Bastiaansen and Anna von der Heydt of TiPES (Tipping Points in the Earth System) project partner Utrecht University, the Netherlands. “If you want to know what ultimately is the response/temperature for a given amount of added CO2, there will be no easy, straightforward and sound way to determine that for sure – even in models.” 

For more information, please see: TiPES project website


This is article republished under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License from EU CORDIS. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. 

The original publication can be found at https://cordis.europa.eu/article/id/442830-no-shortcuts-to-calculating-temperature-rises-in-climate-models. 

Share this article

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

European Commission

The European Commission is divided into departments that develop policies for specific areas. Each department is headed by Commissioners. Overall, the Commission works under the leadership of a President.

Connect with European Commission

Visit Website

POPULAR POSTS BY European Commission

No Shortcuts to Calculating Temperature Rises in Climate Models

Press Release

No Shortcuts to Calculating Temperature Rises in Climate Models

Press Release

Commission Takes Action to Protect Citizens from Air Pollution

Press Release

New Copernicus Satellite to Monitor Climate Change

Get email updates

Sign up for the AWE newsletter

Keep up-to-date through the power of email and receive the latest environmental monitoring product information and newsletter emails from AWE - Monitoring and Analysing the Impact of Industry on the Environment

"*" indicates required fields

Country
*
This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

FEATURED ARTICLES

Press Release

Blackline Safety and NevadaNano Reach Milestone in Deployment of Industry-First Sensors

Press Release

The Benefits of Using Refurbished Parts in Your Lab

Advertisement

SOCIAL MEDIA

AWE on Facebook

https://www.facebook.com/AWEIMagazine/

Advertisement

SOCIAL MEDIA

AWE on Twitter

Avatar AWE International Magazine @aweimagazine ·
20 Mar

📣WE HAVE AN EXCITING ANNOUNCEMENT📣

Want to find out the latest in gas detection? You won't want to miss this!

Launching this week our specialist gas summit, with
@HSIMagazine and @HSMEMagazine.

https://www.aweimagazine.com/webinars/accelerating-gas-detection-in-hse/

#aweinternational #GasDetectionSummit #gasdetection

Reply on Twitter 1637802450164805637 Retweet on Twitter 1637802450164805637 Like on Twitter 1637802450164805637 Twitter 1637802450164805637

Advertisement

SUBSCRIBE

Stay up to date with our newsletter

    • Keep up-to-date with Europe’s largest audited environmental monitoring magazine

 

    • Delivering the latest information on new products and emerging technologies related to industrial environmental monitoring.

 

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Subscribe

SUBSCRIBE TO AWE MAGAZINE

5 reasons to subscribe to our digital and print package

  • Stay up to date from anywhere in the world, with instant access to the latest issue straight from your phone, tablet or laptop.
  • Trust that you’re getting the best content from our range of internationally accredited authors.
  • Get full access to our archives and see how the environmental monitoring landscape has evolved with us over the years.
  • Enjoy our monthly newsletter curated with up-to-the-minute news and a selection of editor’s top picks.
  • Hot off the press and straight to your door – look forward to your own glossy copy of AWE, delivered five times a year
Subscribe View Subscription levels

STAY SAFE & INFORMED

Subscribe to the latest environmental monitoring articles, news, products and regulations

Find out more

Stay up to date with our newsletter

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

ABOUT

  • About AWE
  • Advertise
  • Contact Us

YOUR ACCOUNT

Sign In Register Account Subscribe to AWE

RESOURCES

Request Media Pack

CONNECT

ACCREDITATIONS

Copyright Bay Publishing 2023. All Rights reserved.

Designed & Built by:
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Privacy Policy
  • Cookie Policy
We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. By clicking “Accept”, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies.
Cookie settingsACCEPT
Manage consent

Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
Necessary
Always Enabled
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.
CookieDurationDescription
cookielawinfo-checbox-analytics11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics".
cookielawinfo-checbox-functional11 monthsThe cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional".
cookielawinfo-checbox-others11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other.
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance".
viewed_cookie_policy11 monthsThe cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data.
Functional
Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features.
Performance
Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
Analytics
Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
Advertisement
Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads.
Others
Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet.
SAVE & ACCEPT